Collingwood v Essendon
Sunday July 13, 3.20pmMCG Fox Sports 3.00pm Weather: Min 8 Max 12 Chance of rain 60%: 1-5mm Wind: WSW 27kph Betting: Collingwood $1.52 Essendon $2.55 |
The Bombers are coming off a stirring against the odds win against Port Adelaide, a win that may reinvigorate as season that threatened to stall over the previous few weeks. Collingwood themselves have been an inconsistent outfit in 2014, with early wins over top 4 contenders Sydney and North Melbourne followed by recent losses to the Western Bulldogs and last week the Gold Coast Suns. The loss last week has been criticised by the media as a game the Pies let slip away and it sets up one of the biggest and most important home and away clashes in recent seasons.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
A month ago Collingwood looked like they were set for an assault on the premiership, sitting in fourth place after a tough win over Melbourne. Fast forward to today though and it’s all gone pear shaped fairly quickly, with 3 losses in 4 games, including two heart breaking close defeats against the Suns and Dogs. Yes, injuries have played their part, with the absence of the likes of Maxwell, Reid, Fasolo, Brown and Elliott hurting the Pies ability to perform, but the output from the selected 22 has still been below what was expected from the coaching staff, and of course the fans. The loss to the Suns last week was particularly painful, as the Pies once again kicked inaccurately when they were in control of a game, then allowed the opposition to build a lead only to storm home and basically stuff up the closing moments of the game. Truth be told the Magpies were lucky to even be in the game late on, with 3 key injuries to Suns players, including superstar Gary Ablett, allowing the Pies to finish stronger than the Suns in the closing minutes. Several crucial mistakes in the last few minutes, most from senior, experienced players cost the Pies any chance of winning and left them in a very precarious position going into this clash with Essendon.
In terms of selection this week there is good news for the Magpies with Nick Maxwell and Luke Ball likely to be fit to return from recent injuries. Also in contention out of those who played in the VFL are Jesse White, Tim Broomhead and Patrick Karnezis, with the latter kicking 4 goals in a losing side on Sunday. It is highly likely that there will be at least 3 changes considering the options available and there may even be more if coach Nathan Buckley wants to shake things up a bit. The Pies need to win this game but to do that they will have to play better than they have in the last month or face dropping out of the 8 for the first time since round 2 this season.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Essendon came into season 2014 with hopes of returning to the finals for the first time since 2011 and winning a final for the first time in 10 years, and now that destiny is in their hands. With a win over Collingwood this weekend they would draw level with the Magpies on premiership points and maybe even over take the Pies on percentage. After being excluded from the finals last year as punishment for their part in the drugs saga, things may finally be looking up for Essendon, on the field anyway.
The Essendon backline seems to be one of the most improved in the AFL, as it’s gone from conceding the 11th most points in the AFL last season to now being ranked as the 4th best for points again. Considering they don’t really play a defensive game style like some other high ranked defences do this is impressive in itself. The defensive set up hasn’t changed too much either, with Fletcher, Carlisle and Hooker still the 3 main stay tall defenders, although Carlisle has been used as a swing man at times this year. It does seem though that the whole side now helps the backline out, and their small and medium defenders have improved in every area also. This week they face a Collingwood backline that is missing several key players, and it should grant the Bombers backline another chance to keep the opposition to a low score. Put simply, this defense should keep the Bombers in the game long enough for them to be a chance to win it late on.
Losing two players like Goddard and Watson would hurt any midfield, and when your central core isn’t in great form anyway, it hurts even more. Essendon, like Collingwood, are well down the list when it comes to averages in contested possessions and clearances and losing one of the best clearance players in the AFL, Watson, has to hurt them in that area even more. It’s a little strange though, because like the Pies they still have some big names in the middle, like Stanton, Zaharakis, Heppell, Myers and a tagging option in Hocking. The good news for Essendon is Collingwood’s midfield is really struggling at the moment, with Luke Ball in and out of the side, several youngsters being tried through the rotation and Dane Swan a shadow of his great self due to injury and age. Usually it’s said that a game is won or lost in the midfield but with the form and struggles that these two central groups are going through, I can see it almost being a break even here and the game being won elsewhere.
The Essendon forward line is a work in process and they try to build an attack around the potential superstar that is Joe Daniher. When you look at the current Essendon forward set up it’s hard to figure out where their goals will come from, with even the experienced Paul Champan not really impacting the scoreboard in a big way. Daniher leads the club with an average of 1.2 goals a game, and even that shows just how much this developing forward line is struggling. Carlisle at times has been switched from defense to attack with some good results, and against a Pies backline that is young and inexperienced, coach Mark Thompson might seek to use the defender up forward once again. To win this game Essendon will need their midfield and smaller forwards to contribute goals, because the Pies midfield has a habit of doing just that. This may be the area of the ground that the game is decided in, with Nick Maxwell returning also to bolster a Pies defense that has let in some big scores of late.
This is a vital game for Essendon, it’s a huge chance for them to get level on points with one of their main contenders for a spot in the finals and as such you’d think they will bring a high level of intensity. The loss of Goddard and the continued absence of Watson does hurt but outside of that they aren’t missing much else, so compared to the Pies they are probably better off with injuries. Last week’s win over a top side like Port Adelaide will have given Essendon the confidence it needs to worry the Magpies here, and anything other than a win would be seen as a failure internally you’d assume.
TIP
This is a very tough game to tip due to all the factors influencing the final result. On one hand you have Essendon, who are coming off a club lifting intestate win but will be without Watson and Goddard. Over on the other side you have Collingwood, a side that have dropped all form and confidence but will have some senior players returning to help boost that confidence this weekend.
It’s a game that is genuinely up for grabs, with a spot in the final 8 on the line it is sure to be willing and physical and the timeslot (3.20pm on a Sunday) ensures it will be cold and windy, and maybe wet, conditions that Essendon showed they have no problem playing in last week.
The last time these two faced off on ANZAC day this year the Bombers got out to a big lead early on before Dane Swan led the Pies to a famous come from behind win, and it’s sure to be as contested this time around too.
I lean towards Collingwood in this one though, mainly due to the return of Maxwell and Ball who will just add that level of poise and experience under pressure that has been missing over the last few weeks.
PIES BY 9 POINTS.
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