Preview Round 16: Collingwood v Gold Coast

AFL

Collingwood v Gold Coast Saturday July 5, 4.40pm Metricon Stadium Fox Footy 4.30pm Weather: Min 13 Max 22 Chance of rain 50%: < 1mm Wind: WNW 20kph Betting: Collingwood $1.64 Gold Coast $2.25

THIS game will have massive ramifications for both teams as the Magpies hunt a top-four spot and the Suns continue their charge towards a first finals appearance. Gold Coast has lost four of its past five and is coming off a battering at the hands of Hawthorn, while the patchy Pies snuck home against arch-rivals Carlton in their last start. The Suns took the biggest scalp of their young lives when the teams met at Metricon Stadium in the corresponding match last year, but Gary Ablett (49 disposals and two goals) will not be afforded the same tag-free luxury this time, with Brent Macaffer already flagged as a direct opponent. There are great match-ups all over the field and you can toss a coin for the result in what should be an exciting contest. 

LAST THREE TIMES

1. R17, 2013, Gold Coast 13.7 (85) d Collingwood 11.12 (78) at Metricon Stadium
2. R10, 2012, Collingwood 23.11 (149) d Gold Coast 7.10 (52) at MCG
3. R18, 2011, Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Gold Coast 11.9 (75) at Metricon Stadium

THE SIX POINTS

1. It was Gary Ablett’s night when the Suns upset the Magpies in 2013, with the Suns' captain racking up 49 disposals, two goals and three Brownlow Medal votes.
2. Gold Coast is the number one contested possession team in 2014, averaging 148.3 a game, while Collingwood is equal eighth at 139.1.
3. Three of the highest Brownlow vote-getters in recent memory will be playing in this game, with Gary Ablett, Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury polling a staggering 453 votes between them over their careers.
4. Gold Coast has now won five of seven games at Metricon Stadium in 2014 with its only defeats coming against top-four teams Hawthorn and the Sydney Swans.
5. No team has had more clangers in 2014 than the Suns, with an average of 48.2 a game, while the Magpies are eighth with 45.2.
6. Rory Thompson is the 20th ranked defender in the Official AFL Player Ratings and loves playing the Magpies. In his past two match-ups against Travis Cloke, he has averaged 11.5 spoils and conceded just one goal on each occasion.

Prediction: Gold Coast by 12 points.