Preview Round 18: Collingwood v Adelaide

SPORTAL

Collingwood v Adelaide Sunday July 27, 4.40pm MCG Fox Footy 4.30pm Weather: Min 8 Max 16 Chance of rain 30%: < 1mm Wind: NNW 28kph Betting: Collingwood $1.83 Adelaide $2.00

Why watch
Although Hawthorn v Sydney will offer the quality, this match is shaping as the round’s must-see encounter. For both teams this is a mini-final. Lose here and your chances of playing in September will take a major hit. For Collingwood, this is especially so as the Magpies have a tough run home and a loss may mean they have to beat Hawthorn in Round 23 to make the eight. Good luck! Adelaide have a softer finish but cannot afford to drop to far behind the eight as Gold Coast will be pressing their claims as well.

Match Notes

• All the stats over the last five weeks point to the Crows. The Magpies have lost four of those games, their only win seeing them scrape home over Carlton. In this period, the Pies have an average score of 77.8 points, the Crows 106.4. Making things worse for Collingwood is the fact Adelaide have achieved this, despite playing four opponents in the top eight. That being said, they’ve only managed wins against two of those teams and the total score has been pushed up by a big victory over the Giants.
• Collingwood have lost two big players, with former skipper Nick Maxwell retiring after suffering a serious ankle injury. Dane Swan will miss also a month with what may be a chronic foot problem. The Pies do have some replacements, though. Ben Reid could come into the team for his first match this season. Reid could play for Maxwell, although Lachlan Keefe may be given another chance. Jamie Elliott should return from a hamstring issue to take Swan’s place, while Alex Fasolo has recovered from a foot injury and could come into the team, along with Kyle Martin. Jesse White, Taylor Adams, Ben Kennedy and Paul Seedsman may be in the gun while Tom Langdon could be rested.
• Scott Thompson has been in exceptional form - again – this season, but was battling a hamstring issue that forced him off in last round’s loss to Hawthorn. If Thompson doesn’t play, the Crows may just make a straight swap with David Mackay, who’s recovered from a hamstring injury. Sam Kerridge (foot), Charlie Cameron (groin) and Jared Petrenko (leg) may all be fit given the fortnight off.

Quote of the week
“Whatever happens to us in season 2014 will be dictated by our next six weeks. We can’t do anything about what’s brought us to this point. But, ultimately, we’ll get what we deserve and what we earn,” said Nathan Buckley as he contemplates Collingwood’s first year without finals footy since 2005. 

Key injuries
COLLINGWOOD
Nathan Brown (Shoulder) Season
Nathan Freeman (Hamstring) 2-3 weeks
Ben Hudson (Shoulder) 6 weeks
Patrick Karnezis (Hamstring) Test
Quinten Lynch (Broken Leg) Test
Adam Oxley (Ankle) TBC
Matthew Scharenberg (Feet) Test
Dane Swan (Foot) 3-4 weeks 

Last five games
Collingwood

• L 8 Western Bulldogs
• L 29 Hawthorn
• W 15 Carlton
• L 5 Gold Coast
• L 64 Essendon

Adelaide

• W 36 North Melbourne
• L 9 Essendon
• W 23 Port Adelaide
• W 68 GWS
• L 22 Hawthorn

Cold hard fact
The last time both Nick Maxwell and Dane Swan missed a match was Round 12 2006 when Nathan Buckley – as captain – helped his side to a win over Sydney. 

Final word
The odds are stacked against the Magpies in this one. Adelaide are in form, have most of their players on the park and are gunning for Collingwood’s place in the eight. Collingwood on the other hand, have been shoddy, were dismantled by Essendon last start, have lost two big-name players to injury and have a tendency to turn the ball over way too many times! That being said, the Magpies often find something when their backs are to the walls. It’s why the club has made the finals eight years straight. Last year after a poor loss to Port Adelaide they responded with a series of wins that took them through to the finals comfortably. In Round 1 they were destroyed by Fremantle, but the Maggies hit back through a brave come-from-behind win over Sydney. This has all the hallmarks of one of those moments, even if Josh Jenkins and Adelaide’s tall forward line won’t make things easy. If Collingwood deliver their A-Game, the one seen early this season, they can beat the Crows. Anything else and Adelaide will punish them. This will be tight and tough, it’s a mini final after all. But it’s Adelaide by 6 points.