Collingwood v Gold Coast
Saturday July 5, 4.40pmMetricon Stadium Fox Footy 4.30pm Weather: Min 13 Max 23 Chance of rain 20%: < 1mm Wind: NW 18kph Betting: Collingwood $1.82 Gold Coast $2.00 |
There is a lot riding on this match. Collingwood presently sits in sixth spot on the ladder and is still contending for a top four spot. But it is still yet to secure a top eight position, and a loss this week leaves the Pies’ finals hopes vulnerable.
On the other hand, Gold Coast is hanging onto eighth spot after losing four of its previous five matches, with Adelaide and Essendon only one game behind and ready to pounce. The Suns are hoping to make their first ever finals campaign, and a loss this weekend will make that target extremely challenging.
The trip north to the Gold Coast has become a very difficult prospect with the Suns winning five of their seven games at Metricon Stadium this year. This is largely due to the fact that Gold Coast is maturing as a football side and enjoys playing at its home venue. Many sides struggle to deal with the humid conditions and find the football quite slippery at night time. The conditions are quite different to any other stadium and Gold Coast has clearly adapted well to playing at Metricon Stadium.
Only Sydney and Hawthorn have managed to knock Gold Coast off at home this year, so it will be a big challenge for the Magpies to do the same.
Recent History
When these sides last met, the Gold Coast recorded its greatest ever win in its short history, knocking off the Magpies by seven points. Gary Ablett was the undeniable star of the show, racking up 49 disposals, two goals and three Brownlow votes. Jaeger O’Meara was a fantastic support, kicking three goals from 23 disposals and polling two Brownlow votes, while Tom Nicholls led the way in the ruck and polled one vote.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood will most likely be forced to make at least one change this week, with Jamie Elliott experiencing tightness in his hamstring last weekend. He will be unlikely to play considering the six-day break. In his place, there are a number of players ready to step in, with Marley Williams and Tom Langdon both available, and Nick Maxwell also pressing his claims for a return from a calf injury.
Brodie Grundy was very good in the VFL on the weekend and will be considered, whilst Tim Broomhead and Kyle Martin racked up 31 and 39 disposals respectively and have also put their hands up for selection. Martin may come into consideration as a goal kicking option in the place of Jamie Elliott should the Magpies promote him from the rookie list. Ben Reid, Ben Sinclair and Nathan Freeman are all in the frame to return via VFL this weekend as well.
It is much quieter on the injury front up north, with very few changes forecast this weekend despite the loss to Hawthorn. Brandon Matera remains injured, while there may be some doubt over Greg Broughton who had a back complaint last weekend. Aaron Hall is pressing his claims in the reserves side and shapes as a likely call up.
The Key Match-up – Ablett v Macaffer
After last year’s loss to the Gold Coast, coach Nathan Buckley declared that he made a mistake by not trying to shut down Gary Ablett. His 49 disposals was the key factor in Gold Coast’s historic win. But Collingwood’s woes with Gary Ablett go back a lot further than just last year. He had an amazing 53 disposals the year prior despite his side losing by 97 points and he had multiple 40-plus-disposal games in his Geelong days as well, including his last game as a Cat in the 2010 Preliminary Final.
Buckley has been quick to identify Ablett as his No. 1 target this week and will undoubtedly send his Brent Macaffer – his best tagger – to him. Macaffer is fresh off a mighty job against Marc Murphy last week and took the scalp of Trent Cotchin earlier this year, too. This will be his toughest job yet, and will be a real test for one of the competition’s best taggers.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies have been patchy over the last month but were solid last week against a plucky Carlton side. The midfield played well, the defence stood up and the spread from congested situations was also solid. However, it is clear that the Magpies have not completely kicked into full gear as yet. Apart from Travis Cloke, there has been little assistance up forward with the majority of Collingwood’s goals last week coming from midfielders. With Elliott out this week, it is important the likes of Jesse White, Jarryd Blair and Tyson Goldsack offer Cloke some assistance.
Travis Cloke – Cloke’s form has been terrific in recent weeks, but he was much quieter last week. Nonetheless, I thought his game was very important as he was a key component in a number of goals and he also took a number of important marks around the ground, including one late in the game. He also was important shepherding through a goal kicked by Steele Sidebottom late in the third quarter. He faces an opponent he has struggled with of late in Rory Thompson. He has only kicked one goal in each of his last two games against the Gold Coast, but he did kick six against them in a practice match at the end of the pre-season.
Ben Kennedy – Kennedy was a late inclusion onto the emergency list last week after Marley Williams withdrew from the side with an ankle complaint he sustained at training. When Tom Langdon was also withdrawn from the side, Kennedy was given his opportunity as the substitute. He came on midway through the third quarter and instantly made an impact. In a quarter and a half, he had 16 disposals, which was more than eight other teammates who played a full match. He looked quick and used the ball well. He also made a crucial spoil late in the game to set up a Steele Sidebottom goal that iced the game. He has worn the sub vest more than any other Collingwood player but will be hoping for a start this weekend.
Clinton Young – Young is not a high disposal winner but he is having a massive impact to the Collingwood side and is the No. 1 ranked player for metres gained. With the defence so undermanned of late, Young has had to spend more time than he would have liked in the back pocket. He has managed to offer a lot of run and last week he was even able to push forward and kick two goals. With Maxwell and Williams considered a chance to return, we may be able to see more of Young on a wing where he will be able to utilise that raking left boot and hopefully kick more goals.
Focus on Gold Coast
The Suns were competitive against Hawthorn for a quarter and a half last weekend, but were eventually blown away. It was a tough ask for the side to go to Tasmania, in a very wet game played in freezing conditions. Ultimately, the bigger and more experienced bodies of the Hawthorn players took control and the Suns were no match. I’m sure it will prove to be a great learning experience for the young Gold Coast players, but they will be happy to be back at Metricon Stadium this weekend.
Gold Coast is the number one ranked side for contested possessions in 2014, which is testament to their very talented midfield. Although Collingwood’s midfield is more experienced and equally as star-studded, the young Gold Coast midfield is one of the most dangerous going around and now has such an even contribution across the board with some real flair to match. The other major improvement for the Gold Coast this year has been the development of its three tall forwards. Its forward line is quickly becoming one of the most dangerous in the competition.
David Swallow – The former No. 1 draft pick spent the majority of his 2013 season in defence, but put in a massive pre-season to work his way into the midfield. It has paid dividends with Swallow now averaging 25 disposals and five tackles a game to go with 11 goals for the season. He has the rare ability to play inside and outside and is also very dangerous around goals. He has leadership abilities, and could become one of the best players in the game.
Harley Bennell – Bennell has only managed seven games this season due to injury, but his last month has been particularly good, playing predominantly as a forward. He kicked six goals against the Cats in a best afield performance, and has kicked at least a goal in every game he has played so far this year. Expect the Magpies to throw their best stopper in Alan Toovey onto the dangerous Bennell. Toovey is fresh from a blanketing job on Carlton’s Troy Menzel, restricting him to only five disposals.
Dion Prestia – In any other side, Prestia would be the No. 1 ranked midfielder and highest disposal winner. At the Gold Coast, he plays second fiddle to Gary Ablett. Regardless, Prestia is having a breakout season, averaging 29 disposals. He slips under the radar of most opponents and just knows where to find the footy. It will be interesting to see how Collingwood tackles Prestia. He is likely to go head-to-head against Dane Swan who will look to push forward and expose his height. But Prestia is a very dangerous and smart footballer and will rack up huge numbers if unmonitored.
The Wrap Up
The outcome of this match will have ramifications for both sides and it is genuinely an eight-point game in the context of the season. Collingwood was outrun last year and still is missing a few key players. But the Magpies will feel that if the midfield can match it with Gold Coast, then they should have more depth in the 22 to get over the line.
The worry for Collingwood is the three big talls up forward for the Suns in Sam Day, Tom Lynch and Charlie Dixon. These three are all nearly a ruckman’s height but have so much agility. This will stretch Collingwood’s inexperienced defence. On the other hand, Collingwood needs a greater input from Jesse White, and may opt to bring back Brodie Grundy to help stretch Gold Coasts defence. This makes the midfield battle so important as it is likely to be a fast-paced game and converting opportunities will be the key.
Pies by 10 points.
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