Preview Round 18: Collingwood v Adelaide

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Collingwood v Adelaide Sunday July 27, 4.40pm MCG Fox Footy 4.30pm Weather: Min 8 Max 16 Chance of rain 10%: < 1mm Wind: NNW 28kph Betting: Collingwood $1.82 Adelaide $2.00

So it’s come down to this, after 16 games of the 2014 AFL premiership season Collingwood and Adelaide will go head to head on Sunday for a chance to effectively keep their finals hopes alive. Yes mathematically the loser of this game still has a chance to finish 7th or 8th but realistically a loss here, against a fellow finals contender, would just about spell the end to the season for either team. You can say that for the Magpies especially, who after a woeful showing against Essendon before the bye sit right on the edge of the top 8, and with a few harder games than this still to come. Collingwood at one stage were a top four contender, but with one win in their last 5 games their season is quickly falling apart. The Crows have never reached that lofty height, in fact they’ve been threatening to fall out of finals contention all year only to get a win each time they’ve desperately needed one. Before the bye which each team had last weekend, the Crows had actually found some decent form too with two wins over Port and GWS followed by a credible loss to the powerful Hawthorn outfit. Going into this game there’s little doubt Adelaide are in better form than Collingwood.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
The Magpies find themselves in this position simply based on their own form. With just one win in the last 5 games, and that win coming against lowly Carlton, the Pies have dug a hole so deep that it ‘s going to be hard to get out of now. The Pies have been struggling in just about every area with their midfield getting beat for contested possessions and clearances, the forward line relying solely on Travis Cloke and the backline relying on a bunch of kids to hold it together. The midfield would have to be of most concern for coach Nathan Buckley with it’s star studded names simply not being able to lift the team in crucial stages recently. In the last game against Essendon the Pies midfield was smashed with a -10 gap in clearances and a -20 differential in contested possessions. It was probably as low as this Magpie team has been under Nathan Buckley.
There is some good news for the Magpies though with star big man Ben Reid likely to play his first senior game of the year after 2 games back in the VFL. Reid, an All Australian centre half back was touted as a key forward this year but hasn’t been seen at senior level due to recurring injuries. Also returning this week is the Pies leading goal kicker, small forward Jamie Elliott. Elliott, who will play his 50th senior game this week has been one of the few positives this season and he was on track for All Australian selection before a hamstring injury cost him 3 games. The Pies will be without two stalwarts though with Nick Maxwell announcing his retirement during the week and Dane Swan finally succumbing to various injuries he’s been suffering all year. Surely the Maxwell announcement will lead to a boost in intensity and effort as the premiership captain led from the front his whole career, and will still expect that from his team mates even if he isn’t out there any more. It’s a huge game for Collingwood this, it may well be their finals chances decider when all is said and done.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
The Adelaide Crows have had an underwhelming season so far, they’ve never actually been inside the top 8 but with a win over the Pies here they could well be for the first time in 2014. They started the season poorly with 3 straight losses and ever since have been fighting just to keep their finals hopes alive. Against the odds they’ve done it and as they showed in recent weeks their form at home is very strong. Where the Crows may struggle a bit is away from home, with only 3 wins on the road so far this season. This game will be like a final though for both teams, and usually home ground advantage doesn’t count for too much in finals like games. The bye came at the right time for the Crows too with several key players struggling with injuries during their loss against the Hawks in their last game. The Crows possess talent on every line and will be a formidable team for the Pies to overcome indeed.
The Crows forward line looks a very dangerous one on paper and most weeks it delivers on that promise. The recruitment of Eddie Betts and James Podsiadly over the off season saw the Crows add even more depth to an already talented attacking zone. Taylor Walker has returned from his knee injury in fine style and Josh Jenkins has become a very tough opponent to matchup on, as the Pies found out last time in their loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval. Where the Crows may struggle a little is with midfield support in scoring with only Patrick Dangerfield really impacting the scoreboard out of the middle. They run into a Pies backline that will be without Nathan Brown and Nick Maxwell, which will mean once again the Pies will rely on a young defense to hold it’s own against a very talented forward line.
The Crows midfield is strong especially at the clearances with Adelaide ranked number one for centre clearances this season. There’s no surprise in that statistic either when you look at the names in that central core, with Dangerfield, Thompson, Martin, Sloane, Crouch and Douglas all able to win their own ball. The Crows do lack speed outside the packs though although even that has improved in recent weeks and will obviously be helped by the bye also. They face off against a Pies midfield that is flat out struggling, with only Beams and Pendlebury consistently performing. Witts vs Jacobs in the ruck will be an interesting battle though with the young Magpie beginning to dominate the hitouts against more experienced opponents in recent weeks. Most games are decided in the midfield but even though the Crows may have the edge in this area I can’t see it being the difference this weekend.
The Crows backline is probably their weakness, and with Reid and Elliott returning for the Pies it will be stretched to his limit this week. Ben Rutten in his final few games of an illustrious career is still being relied upon to lead the backline along with developing youngster Daniel Talia. The Magpies forward line hasn’t performed well all year though so the Crows will be confident of being able to restrict it to a decent score that will give it a chance to win. The Crows do rebound the ball off half back quite well though with the likes of Brown, Smith, Laird and Jaensch all improving in their roles this season. This may well be the area of the ground that is of most concern for coach Brenton Sanderson and it may well be where the game is decided.
The Crows come into this game refreshed off the bye and with plenty of confidence after a good month of football before the break. The weekend off would have also refreshed some of their stars with Thompson and Dangerfield both really struggling physically in their last game and Kerridge a chance to return also thanks to the extra week. Like the Magpies the Crows have talked this game up as a finals like fixture and with the relative positions on the ladder you can believe that will be used as the defining line leading into this game. Adelaide’s form away from home hasn’t been great so they’ll have to improve that if they are going to knock over the Pies on their home ground.

TIP
With a finals place up for grab this game will be as intense as any seen in the home and away season so far, and that alone leads you to believe that there won’t be much in it at the end. The Crows have the healthier list but the Pies have the home ground advantage. The Crows have the better recent form but the Magpies get back two dangerous forwards. Adelaide will try to win this game by winning the ball from the centre clearances, a strength area of theirs no doubt. The Pies will try and win this through intensity, tackling and pressure, because when those three things are on the Magpies rarely lose.
With good weather predicted despite the 4.40pm start time both clubs big forwards should be able to get their hands on the ball and provide a handful for the struggling opposition defense.
Ultimately this game will come down to whoever performs the best on the day with very little between them on paper, and I just see the Magpies being able to improve in too many areas to win a tight game and keep their finals hopes alive.
PIES BY 13 POINTS.