Preview Round 17: Collingwood v Essendon

AFL

Collingwood v Essendon Sunday July 13, 3.20pm MCG Fox Sports 3.00pm Weather: Min 7 Max 13 Chance of rain 30%: < 1mm Wind: W 22kph Betting: Collingwood $1.60 Essendon $2.35

THIS has all of a sudden become an important game given the fortunes of both sides. Essendon, following its surprise win over Port Adelaide last week, is still hanging in there for a top-eight berth. The Bombers have lost some games to opponents below them on the ladder this year but have lifted for the bigger contests, and did so last week against the Power at Adelaide Oval. Collingwood, meanwhile, is clinging to its top-eight position after dropping three of the past four games. The Magpies can move on from a spluttering run of form with a victory over their great rivals.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R6, 2014, Collingwood 12.11 (83) d Essendon 8.12 (60) at MCG
2. R19, 2013, Collingwood 20.13 (133) d Essendon 7.12 (54) at MCG
3. R5, 2013, Essendon 18.13 (121) d Collingwood 10.15 (75) at MCG
4. R23, 2012, Collingwood 14.20 (104) d Essendon 10.12 (72) at MCG
5. R5, 2012, Collingwood 11.14 (80) d Essendon 11.13 (79) at MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Collingwood has dominated Essendon recently, winning nine of the past 10 contests. Four wins have come by more than 60 points and one by more than 90.
2. It's a battle of the worst goalkicking sides in 2014. Essendon is ranked 17th for accuracy at 46.9 per cent and Collingwood is 18th at 46.7 per cent conversion rate.
3. The Bombers continue to rely heavily on their kicking. They are ranked first for kicks this year at an average of 228.8 a game.
4. Dane Swan might be out of form but he has a terrific record against the Bombers. In his past five games against Essendon Swan has averaged 34 disposals.
5. This is the 230th meeting between Essendon and Collingwood, with the Magpies holding a clear advantage – 126 wins to 99, with four draws.
6. Jamie Elliott has had a terrific season, reflected in the Official AFL Player Ratings, brought to you by Gatorade. Elliott started the year ranked 237 in the competition, but has risen to 105, and as Collingwood's sixth-highest player.

Prediction: Collingwood by 11 points.