Collingwood v Adelaide
Sunday July 27, 4.40pmMCG Fox Footy 4.30pm Weather: Min 8 Max 16 Chance of rain 10%: < 1mm Wind: NNW 28kph Betting: Collingwood $1.82 Adelaide $2.00 |
With five teams vying for the final two positions in the top eight, every match from this point onwards will be a mini-final for both Collingwood and Adelaide. The Magpies currently sit in eighth, while the Crows are only one game behind in 10th position.
If Collingwood loses, then it will drop out of the top eight, and Adelaide will move above on the ladder.
A win, on the other hand, will ensure the Magpies are two games clear of the Crows.
Given Collingwood’s tricky run home, this result is clearly a mini-final, a point that coach Nathan Buckley has made clear to his players this week.
Both sides lost in round 17, though the Crows were gallant in defeat against Hawthorn.
Collingwood, on the other hand, slumped to one of its worst losses of the year, getting thumped by Essendon by 64 points. The Magpies only managed five goals for the entire match, highlighting major deficiencies in the forward line. It marked a horror month for Collingwood, for it has lost four of its last five games.
In many regards, last week’s bye came at a crucial time for the club as it allowed the players the opportunity to regather their thoughts and focus on the run home.
After a dreadful start to the year, the Crows have really clicked into gear and have stormed back into finals contention. Adelaide has won three of its previous five games, with its only losses in this period to Hawthorn and Essendon by narrow margins.
Although the game is at the MCG, the Crows must be feeling confident based on recent form.
It has been a big fortnight for the Pies following the loss to the Bombers, with premiership captain Nick Maxwell announcing his retirement and Brownlow Medallist Dane Swan announcing he will be out for a month with a heel injury.
If Jamie Elliott returns, he will play his 50th game, while Adelaide’s Richard Douglas and James Podsiadly will notch their 150th and 100th games respectively.
Recent History
These sides last met in round nine this year. At that stage of the year, the form line of these two teams was much different. The Magpies were flying high with five wins and two losses leading into the round eight bye, while Adelaide was going through a difficult start to the year, having only won three games and heading into the bye on the back of a loss to Melbourne.
In many regards, the bye stunted Collingwood’s momentum, whilst it allowed Adelaide to refocus.
Ironically, these two sides again meet after a bye, and Adelaide will be hoping a similar effect is not prevalent this time around.
With two weeks to re-energise, the Magpies will hope to bounce back in a similar vein to Adelaide in round nine.
Last time around, a record crowd at the Adelaide Oval helped bring home an inspired Adelaide outfit by 21 points.
Patrick Dangerfield and Scott Thompson were fantastic for the Crows with 32 and 30 disposals respectively, while Josh Jenkins broke the low-scoring game wide open with four goals. For the Magpies, Scott Pendlebury and Dayne Beams each had over 30 disposals and kicked a goal, whilst Tom Langdon stood up down back with 23 disposals.
At the Selection Table
It is a big week at the selection table for Collingwood with at least two forced changes required due to the retirement of Nick Maxwell and a heel injury to Dane Swan, which will keep him out for three weeks.
Thankfully, two important players are ready to fill the void with Jamie Elliott and Ben Reid pressing hard for selection. Reid, in particular, will be a massive inclusion if he can pass his fitness test at training, as he has not played any senior football since 2 March.
In other selection news, Lachlan Keeffe performed strongly following his demotion to the VFL last round and should be in line for selection given the tall Adelaide forward line.
Others who are putting their hands up include Tim Broomhead and Kyle Martin who have dominated the VFL in recent weeks.
Turning the focus onto Adelaide, and it is hard to see too many changes to the side despite the fact that numerous players are on the periphery and demanding selection.
Scott Thompson was perhaps the only injury concern leading into the bye with an ongoing hamstring complaint, but is expected to be fit to face the Magpies.
David Mackay will also push for selection following a hamstring injury.
Players such as Matt Crouch, Charlie Cameron, Jared Petrenko and Sam Kerridge are among a host of Adelaide players that will press their claim for selection if required.
Focus on Collingwood
As highlighted in my last preview, Collingwood’s greatest deficiency over the last month has been the forward line, with not enough players contributing to the scoreboard. This is reflected by the fact that the Magpies have only been averaging 77 points over the last few rounds. This issue may be somewhat resolved by the inclusions of Ben Reid and Jamie Elliott.
Elliott is Collingwood’s second highest goal scorer this season and the only small forward who has looked dangerous all season long.
Ben Reid on the other hand will finally allow Jesse White to play as the third tall forward and part-time ruckman, which is the role White was recruited to the club to play. Travis Cloke will also benefit greatly by his presence as Reid will demand a good defender and help deflect attention away from Cloke. Alternatively, Buckley may opt to use Reid in defence to help cover the Adelaide tall forwards.
I would also not be surprised to see Buckley tweak his midfield combination this week. The Magpies have a lot of young midfielders in the side, but were alarmingly beaten through the middle by an Essendon side lacking Jobe Watson or Brendon Goddard.
Collingwood is currently ranked 16th in the competition for clearances, so this area needs to be addressed quickly.
The absence of Swan will be a big loss, but he has barely played midfield in the last few weeks due to his heel complaint and the fact he has been needed in the forward line.
The disposal efficiency of the midfield has also been a major concern. This could see classy players like Martin or Broomhead come into the side to help alleviate this problem.
Player Focus
Scott Pendlebury – Although still producing respectable numbers, I feel as if Pendles has been a shade below his lofty standards. It is his toughest test to date, considering the pressure will be on him as the captain of the football club to lift his side out of its slump and press on towards finals. Without his partner in crime Dane Swan, Pendlebury will be heavily targeted, and therefore the likes of Dayne Beams and Steele Sidebottom need to offer support.
Jarrod Witts – Witts has been one player in the past few weeks to really lift his game. He has clearly improved this year and has now secured the number one ruck position. But he faces a tough opponent this week in Sam Jacobs, who in my opinion, will be close to being named in the All-Australian team as its ruckman this year. The Crows have a very good midfield, so quelling the influence of Jacobs is going to be a huge task for the young Collingwood ruckman. The bye came at an important time for the young project ruckman, as he would surely be feeling the affects of his first full season at AFL level.
Jack Frost – Rated by many as the club’s most improved player in 2014, Frost has a huge challenge ahead of him this Sunday. Buckley could use him on any of Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins or James Podsiadly, all of whom are in good form and pose a huge threat. He was one Magpie who can hold his head high after last week’s loss, but still needs to work on his offensive side to his game, as he has been prone to the odd blunder with ball in hand.
Focus on Adelaide
The Crows are strong right across the field, with a very talented midfield, developing backline and powerful forward line. Nonetheless, they have struggled for consistency all year and need to improve their foot skills at times. The backline can also be exposed on occasion given the fact that Ben Rutten has struggled for form and will be retiring at the end of the year.
Player Focus
Patrick Dangerfield – There would have been no other player in the AFL as grateful for the bye round as Dangerfield whose body was quite banged up and in need of a rest. Dangerfield knows no other way, and was probably best on ground when these two sides last met despite the fact he had the Brent Macaffer tag for large parts of the match. His last game was also dominant, picking up 41 disposals and 6 tackles against Hawthorn. It will be interesting to see whether Macaffer takes the match-up again, or whether he moves onto the equally dangerous Rory Sloane.
Rory Sloane – Sloane had a slow start to the season but has been terrific in recent weeks, which has undoubtedly seen the Crows improve as well. He had 33 disposals against the Hawks, highlighting his huge work rate and ability to influence the game. Sloane is a good user of the football and makes great decisions, as well as tackling hard and setting an aggressive standard for his teammates to follow.
Brad Crouch – After three months on the sidelines, Crouch has returned as if he never left and has really rounded out the strong Adelaide midfield. His game against Hawthorn was one of his best matches in his short career, acquiring 40 disposals. Crouch has a unique blend of inside and outside ability and is another really smart user of the football. He is one to keep an eye on this weekend, especially if the likes of Sloane and Dangerfield also get on top and start dominating through the middle.
The Wrap Up
Both sides have so much to play for, with the loser facing an uphill battle to make the top eight. This is a classic mini-final and I expect a really hot contest. Both sides possess A-grade midfields, and the battle may well and truly be won in this department considering both teams also have the firepower up forward to kick a winning score. The potential inclusions of Reid and Elliott will be important for the Magpies in this regard.
These two sides have always matched up really well against each other, and it is rare that there is a blow out. The Crows have the better form, but the bye should freshen up the Magpies and see them bounce back from their form slump.
The Final Word – Nick Maxwell
A quick final word on Nick Maxwell who announced his retirement this week. Although not the most talented player to ever play for or captain the side, Maxwell forged a terrific career and will always be known as a premiership captain. He has been an inspiration to his teammates and fans alike, proving that the mental element of this game is just as important as any other aspect.
He was a true leader of the club, and I wish him all the best in his future endeavours. He will be sorely missed, but I feel great comfort knowing that the young defence has had the opportunity to learn directly from him this year.
Pies by 15 points.
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